The Leg Up: Belmont Preview – Saturday 26 September 2020

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Race 1 – 12:18PM TABTOUCH WESTSPEED PLATINUM MAIDEN (1200 METRES)

We get off to a low-key start on Black Heart Bart Stakes Day, but wouldn’t be surprised to see WEDNESDAY go close. Had solid trial form prior to a strong-finishing 1000m placing on debut two weeks back, and some minor traffic issues impacted the beaten margin also. Hoping she can hold a midfield running position from this low draw and with clear galloping room Wednesday can impact. First-upper DARCELE ran some races last prep and moved well in her Belmont 14/09 trial. Has to be a major player. DEVIL’S DUST maps well and can elevate with the winkers going on third up, while expecting RUBYCHINO to roll forward and give a decent kick.

Tips: 11-8-4-10
Suggested: 11. WEDNESDAY win.

11. WEDNESDAY
8. DARCELE
4. DEVIL’S DUST
10. RUBYCHINO

Race 2 – 12:57PM AMELIA PARK PLATE (1000 METRES)

Holding the line with the untapped FRIDAY KNIGHT, who showcased his raw potential on debut two weeks back, greenly zig-zagging his way up the straight and still managing to clock the fastest closing splits of the day. The raceday experience stands him in good stead and with a bit more tractability, Friday Knight can zap them late. The unbeaten DUNBAR oozes class so really looking forward to seeing what he produces first up, the brilliant GEMMA’S SON also returns from a break and is a terrific opportunity for 3kg claimer Bennett, while BROOKLYN PIER was very professional in his Belmont 1000m win last fortnight and warrants respect.

Tips: 6-4-1-3
Suggested: 6. FRIDAY KNIGHT win.

6. FRIDAY KNIGHT
4. DUNBAR
1. GEMMA’S SON
3. BROOKLYN PIER

Race 3 – 1:37PM GLENROY CHAFF PLATE (1400 METRES)

OFF WEGO didn’t let us down last start and locking him in to make it a hat-trick of wins. Looked to be in some trouble in the six-horse field last start, but after balancing up in the clear he let down powerfully to overhaul Surveillance late. Can settle closer from this draw without leaking fuel and the closing speed he’s shown recently suggests he only needs galloping room to score again. PRECAUTIONARY is a genuine threat on the seven-day backup. Felt there was merit in that first-up result and from gate one down on 51kg, she can make things interesting, while last-start maiden winners CAPTAIN BURGLAR and CHICLETT are both expected to figure prominently also.

Tips: 1-4-3-5
Suggested: 1. OFF WEGO win.

1. OFF WEGO
4. PRECAUTIONARY
3. CAPTAIN BURGLAR
5. CHICLETT

Race 4 – 2:17PM SEACORP HANDICAP (2000 METRES)

Very hard to look beyond LEADING GIRL. Beaten twice as an odds-on fave, she needed to stand up last Saturday week and that’s exactly what she did, giving them a start and a beating, and running some blistering closing sections in the process. That was a high-class performance and while she does map rearward in her first crack beyond a mile, Leading Girl is still expected to zoom past them late again. What a first-up performance from MACKENZIE BROOKE last start, stretching the race fit/in form fave Montelena all the way. Clearly returned to racing in mint condition and she has to rate highly following that result. Tough on-pacer NOIR DE RUE is building, while PADDY’S SHADOW has caught the eye at her two runs back from a break.

Tips: 5-2-1-7
Suggested: 5. LEADING GIRL win.

5. LEADING GIRL
2. MACKENZIE BROOKE
1. NOIR DE RUE
7. PADDY’S SHADOW

Race 5 – 2:53PM VALE KEITH WATSON HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

Locking in UTGARD LOKI to knock off likely fave MONEY MATTERS. Liked the way the JT Warwick-trained 5YO improved with the blinkers on over an unsuitable 1200m last start, and expecting him to come forward significantly rising to the mile third up. Maps sweely from a low draw and this looks a good option for Utgard Loki. Have a lot of time for Money Matters and his recent formlines are significant, there just has to be a query going 1200m to 1600m with apprentice Madi Derrick on board. MRS BROWN’S BOY has been doing plenty right against quality opposition recently, while the best of SNOWCHINO would see her make a splash in this.

Tips: 2-7-8-4
Suggested: 2. MONEY MATTERS win.

2. MONEY MATTERS
7. MRS BROWN’S BOY
8. SNOWCHINO
4. LORDHELPMERUN
*Numbers amended after scratchings

Race 6 – 3:29PM VALE NINO BURATOVIC HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

In a wide-open Graduation Handicap MODERATOR looks the way to go. Has been a bit of a surprise packet this fellow, winning well with 59kg over the Belmont mile two back and being a good thing beat in a similar event to this last fortnight, when held up noticeably in the straight. Moderator is in the zone and with another patient ride he can work them over later. ARNIE’S BOY does find it hard to win, but is performing consistently and should get a lovely run from the inside alley. PLAYING MARIKA won a similar race to this last start and can win again, COME RIGHT BACK is expected to roll forward and compete well late, while keep an eye out for BIG SHOT PADDY flooding home.

Tips: 8-9-3-4
Suggested: 8. MODERATOR each way.

8. MODERATOR
9. ARNIE’S BOY
3. PLAYING MARIKA
4. COME RIGHT BACK

Race 7 – 4:08PM IRON JACK HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

Some real emerging talents lining up in this but pretty keen on LONG BEACH to continue his rise through the ranks. Thought he may be spotting some fast horses too much of a head-start returning from a let up over 1000m at Belmont 12/09, but after being $2.90 to $2.40 he launched over the top of them in decisive fashion. Another hailing from the Peters Inc production line, Long Beach looks the real deal and from this draw with this likely race shape, he wins again. Fast front-runner CLIFFS OF COMFORT will make him earn it though, backing up after his brave defeat last Saturday. The big-finishing EEYORE WAYZ is buttering up also, but can he be as dynamic over the 1200m, while honest customer POSITION OF POWER can make his presence felt fresh.

Tips: 3-6-5-10
Suggested: 3. LONG BEACH win.

3. LONG BEACH
6. EEYORE WAYZ
5. POSITION OF POWER
10. PULI
*Numbers amended after scratchings

Race 8 – 4:45PM BLACK HEART BART STAKES (1200 METRES)

The first Black Heart Bart Stakes is an absolute belter and expecting Group 1 performer VITAL SILVER to rise to the occasion. Is easily the most suited under the Set Weights plus Penalties conditions and from this draw, jockey Peter Hall has been dealt a good hand. Vital Silver was enormous first up under 62kg, showing the Pearce Bros have him locked in, and from a commanding on-speed running position it’ll take a mighty effort to knock him off. Big fan of STAGEMAN and excited to see what he can do at his first start in 2020. Can’t be underestimated, while the same can be said for RED CAN MAN, who has a massive engine but does look a touch vulnerable from this draw. MASSIMO can’t be faulted, but this is his biggest test, while CUP NIGHT will be attacking the line late as always.

Tips: 1-11-6-5
Suggested: 1. VITAL SILVER win.

1. VITAL SILVER
11. STAGEMAN
6. RED CAN MAN
5. CUP NIGHT
*Numbers amended after scratchings

Race 9 – 5:20PM CROWN PERTH HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

A full field to face the starter in the ‘Get Out’ and it’s certainly a challenging assignment. Ended up rolling with first-upper REBEL KNIGHT, who certainly has his share of talent and hails from the impressive Darren McAuliffe yard. Has been off the scene for a while but was sharpened up for this with a Lark Hill 7/09 hit-out and has a very strong first-up profile. Lands midfield and charges late. EXPRESSIONIST is a horse on the up, but W Pike to M Derrick (a3) has to be an obvious query. With a trouble-free run he can definitely salute. In-form mares POINT TAKEN and LUCKY LINDA LULU warrant consideration also, while DENIM PACK simply won too well to ignore last start.

Tips: 1-8-5-4
Suggested: 1. REBEL KNIGHT each way.

1. REBEL KNIGHT
8. EXPRESSIONIST
5. POINT TAKEN
4. LUCKY LINDA LULU
12. DENIM PACK

**This edition of #TheLegUp by @thoroheadsWA originally published at 7:00am on Thursday 24 September 2020

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thoroheads

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