The Leg Up: Ascot Preview – Saturday 5 January 2019

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Race 1 – 12:08PM CROWN PERTH PLATE (1000 METRES)

MISS WEST COAST returns to racing and her dominant Belmont 24/12 trial win suggests she’s come forward significantly since a narrow miss in the Initial Plate last October. Gapped her rivals in that recent 1000m heat and from a low draw, she should stalk to leaders in transit and have too much closing speed for her rivals late. PICTURE SHOW is out of a Karrakatta Plate winner and caught the eye when rattling home in her latest trial. MIA DOLCE has chased home the exciting Specialism twice and that form is strong, while DRINKWHATYOULIKE covered the ground well in her Lark Hill trial win.

Tips: 5-6-4-3
Suggested: 5. MISS WEST COAST win.

5. MISS WEST COAST
6. PICTURE SHOW
4. MIA DOLCE
3. DRINKWHATYOULIKE

Race 2 – 12:46PM TABTOUCH – BETTER YOUR BET HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

Tipped against ANGELIC RULER last start and not making the same mistake again, with the rising star set to make it three straight and continue the Pearce Bros amazing recent run of success. Apprentice Tayla Stone keeps the ride after making all the right moves last time, and she only needs to keep Angelic Ruler out of trouble and within striking distance to salute again. ASSETRO was only getting warm late first up over 1400m and should appreciate this trip. Blinkers go on for the first time. Likely leader ARCHANT goes good and could pinch it, while ACTION FIGURE is improving with every start.

Tips: 1-2-3-4
Suggested: 1. ANGELIC RULER win.

1. ANGELIC RULER
2. ASSETRO
3. ARCHANT
4. ACTION FIGURE

Race 3 – 1:26PM MUMM CHAMPAGNE HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

Pretty keen on the big-finishing ROYAL STATUE. Was denied a fifth straight win by Lucky Roar in a muddling-run affair last start, with that mare going on to produce a brave placing at listed level last time. The 28 day-break is a slight concern and he does need to be ridden patiently, but with a genuine tempo and an uninterrupted run, he should charge past his rivals late. Would like to see NELSON’S FLIGHT lead and if he finds the rail in front, he could cause an upset. REVEILLE will be drifting back and running home strong, while no surprise to see WITNESS IN COURT run on and impact first up.

Tips: 4-6-3-5
Suggested: 4. ROYAL STATUE win.

4. ROYAL STATUE
6. NELSON’S FLIGHT
3. REVEILLE
5. WITNESS IN COURT

Race 4 – 2:06PM AMELIA PARK HANDICAP (2200 METRES)

In-form, race hardened stayer BROTHER’S KEEPER looks a solid each-way play. Comes back a grade after mixing it with Perth Cup hopefuls The Big Show and Like A Butterfly last time, and this field looks like providing a more suitable genuine tempo than the walk-and-sprint he encountered on that occasion. Won over this track/distance with 58kg two back and should go close again. SENTIMENTAL FRIEND should be ready to peak fourth up and has some quality about him. May encounter traffic issues from a low draw though, while on-pacers MR ALBY and WATCH ME NEY NEY are both major players.

Tips: 8-6-5-7
Suggested: 8. SENTIMENTAL FRIEND win.

8. SENTIMENTAL FRIEND
6. MR ALBY
5. WATCH ME NEY NEY
7. BURGER TIME

*Numbers amended after scratchings.

Race 5 – 2:43PM FURPHY-SUMMER SCORCHER (1000 METRES)

Found it hard to separate MISTY METAL and AMBIENTE. Eventually rolled with Misty Metal as she looks set to land in a commanding position either railing in front lead or outside leader. Sizzled in a mid-prep Belmont 24/12 trial and if she brings her A-game it’s going to take something special to run over the top of her. Ambiente certainly has the weapons to make things very interesting, providing he doesn’t get caught facing the breeze three-wide. Potential leader GEE BOSS has been set for this race and is suited down on 54.5kg, while PROFIT STREET is racing really well but without much luck.

Tips: 7-5-3-2
Suggested: 7. MISTY METAL win.

7. MISTY METAL
5. AMBIENTE
3. GEE BOSS
2. PROFIT STREET

Race 6 – 3:18PM MRS MAC’S-LA TRICE CLASSIC (1800 METRES)

LUCKY ROAR was mighty in the Starstruck Classic and can go one better. Rolled along in front and had them stretching their necks on that occasion, fighting on bravely before getting out-muscled late. Maps to park up just behind the leaders, and should have plenty of fuel in the tank to attack and run out a strong 1800m. FIRST AFFAIR encountered major traffic issues in the Starstruck and now has the services of Damian Lane. Expecting her to be charging late. Starstruck winner FONTAINEBLEAU maps superbly and must be respected, while CELEBRITY DREAM had no luck last time but the 1800m is a query.

Tips: 5-3-2-1
Suggested: 5. LUCKY ROAR each way.

5. LUCKY ROAR
3. FIRST AFFAIR
2. FONTAINEBLEAU
1. CELEBRITY DREAM

Race 7 – 3:55PM ASCEND SALES HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

Plenty of winning chances, but found it hard to look past ALPHA SKY. Launched late to score first up and was strong again last time, recording the third-fastest last 200m split of the day when chasing home boom sprinter Ambiente. With a clear crack at them, Alpha Sky should make his presence felt. Victorian import DOUBLE JEOPARDY was a $2.80 chance prior to being scratched after a barrier mishap at Ascot 22/12. Have to respect that price and the camp is firing big time. FORCEFUL may find this a bit short, but expecting him to flash late, while the in-form SHACKLETON has a low draw and 54kg.

Tips: 5-9-3-13
Suggested: 5. ALPHA SKY each way.

5. ALPHA SKY
9. DOUBLE JEOPARDY
3. FORCEFUL
13. SHACKLETON

Race 8 – 4:35PM TABTOUCH-PERTH CUP (2400 METRES)

WA Derby winner ACTION has a stranglehold on this. Has the miles in his legs after successive 2200m outings, including a strong finishing second with 58kg in last week’s A.T.A. Stakes, and is suited jumping from the low draw with only 53kg. Pike should put Action to sleep early and utilise his outstanding staying capacity to full affect late. Stablemate MISSISSIPPI DELTA is the main danger. Drops 4kg and has the turn-of-foot to make life difficult for the favourite. CAPPO D’ORO should enjoy sliding down to 53kg and can impact, while GATTING has the class and heart to take him a long way.

Tips: 3-10-4-1
Suggested: 3. ACTION win.

3. ACTION
10. MISSISSIPPI DELTA
4. CAPPO D’ORO
1. GATTING

Race 9 – 5:15PM SEPPELT “THE DRIVES” HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

CAROCAPO is one of the more intriguing runners on the day and if he can bring his recent trial brilliant form to the races, he’s going to be very hard to catch. The front-runner has had a promising career significantly impacted by soundness issues over the past two years, but has run time and won his two most recent 1000m trials by big margins, suggesting Jim Taylor has him in good nick and ready to fire first up. The race fit, in form BEAT THE DEVIL has to rate among the major players, as does the big finishing BON VOYAGE, while PRINCESS ZELDA is flying and due for a change of luck.

Tips: 6-2-11-12
Suggested: 6. CAROCAPO win.

6. CAROCAPO
2. BEAT THE DEVIL
11. BON VOYAGE
12. PRINCESS ZELDA

*Originally published at 9:00am on Thursday 3 January 2019

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