Scott Embry’s tips provided courtesy of TABtouch blog
Saturday October 14 2023
LIVE LUCKY jumps sideways and clearly has a few barrier issues (has never had a horse in the barrier beside her at trials) but she’s won all three 400m jump outs in blistering time. The 19 September trial was either one of the fastest 2yo 400s recorded or there was a timing error (23.16) – that’s sizzling from a standing start where her first stride is lateral. If she can cross them she’ll take real running down. Risk vs Reward. THIS’LL SHOW YA and SHOW THE WAY on the other hand both look like little professionals. They seem to do everything right and they both seem capable. LONDON’S IMAGE has only had one trial and it was solid. She’s importantly drawn the fence.
Numbers: 6 – 10 – 4 – 7
Suggested Bet – LIVE LUCKY WIN
BONNIE LAD is on the winner of an Esperance maiden and a Mt Barker C2 but it was hard to miss his recent trial when flashing late at undefeated filly Petula when getting through heavy traffic in the home straight. Can hold a position from the favourable draw and goes around eachway. FAST FLICKER is a mare on the rise and capable of winning better races than just at Westspeed Platinum level. Back to 1100, and drawn in barrier 1 are both changes which are likely to divide opinions. Does she have the speed to hold up leader’s back? Or is she three back the fence? ON THE FULL can jump and run in this. FINCHY trialled super for her return.
Numbers: 6 – 9 – 2 – 7
Suggested Bet – BONNIE LAD EACHWAY
SOLDANELLE was annihilated in betting last start. Was $9 throughout the days leading into race day and then all of a sudden punters were jumping out of trees to back her to the point where she jumped favourite at $3.50 and firming every moment before jump. She finished sixth and was beaten 2L but all things considered that’s a great effort with the amount of ground she covered. Ready to win one in WA but does have another tricky gate. BANDALERA MISS was eye-catching in the same race and W.Pike returns to the saddle from a favourable draw. Understandably popular. MAGIC WHISTLE could be a big improver in a race without a leader. GOLD FRIARS is getting closer.
Numbers: 9 – 6 – 5 – 4
Suggested Bet – SOLDANELLE EACHWAY
BECALOTTI hasn’t had anything go her way in two runs back from a freshen. She was drawn 7 of 9 and did it tough in the Celebrity Prince race and then was drawn 12 of 15 when again covering plenty of ground in the Playhouse Patron race. She’s mapped to get a far better run here and she’ll go round eachway. Only missed the money twice in her career and had genuine excuses on both occasions. PLEASURE CRUISE is two from two undefeated and this is excellent placement to lob him into a 66+ on the minimum. Only scrambled home last start but never really settled behind a muddling tempo. He’s classy. AMBER GLIDE can hold a spot from the draw. Progressive mare who was extremely impressive gunning them down last start. NOTEWORTHY went to another level when last in work and was a quiet trial.
Numbers: 5 – 12 – 10 – 7
Suggested Bet – BECALOTTI EACHWAY
SENTIMENTAL HERO stamped himself as a legitimate Carnival contender when getting the job done first-up in a 1200. He’ll only get better and better as they step him out over further deeper into his campaign and it’s clockwork for Bob Peters to wheel out these lightly raced types at this time of year. Looks like he’s in for a big campaign. LET’S GALAHVANT was enormous in the Hannans Handicap. They ran the race 6L faster than average and he covered ground from start to finish. Hard to fault. POMPEY is honest and consistent and will appreciate the 2kg off and having no Aztec Ruler in this. FEELS PLAYFUL should amble straight to the top.
Numbers: 12 – 1 – 8 – 11
Suggested Bet – SENTIMENTAL HERO WIN
COSMIC CRUSADER put the writing on the wall first-up with a ‘be on me next start’ effort, however, he is also second-up 1200m to 1600m. Big ask in terms of a distance rise but he looks like he’s going to get out over ground in time and from the perfect barrier you can understand why they’ve gone to this race. It’s very winnable and he looks pretty sharp. DECORATION broke her maiden in style and the runner-up came out and won effortlessly on Wednesday. Puts herself into a position and gets a gun run. MEGAMI is third-up and comes back to a 60+ Graduation after working to the line alright behind Aztec Ruler and Pompey. This is more suitable. HIBISCUS LADY put on a clinic at Northam last start. 59kg is likely a leveller but she could kick through to lead them here.
Numbers: 13 – 15 – 1 – 3
Suggested Bet – COSMIC CRUSDER WIN
RULER ROCKET finally repaid his loyal following with an impressive off-speed win last start after making a mess of the start. With Ain’t No Other Man coming out and winning a 66+ at Kalgoorlie last Saturday the form has been franked and he looks like he’ll lob a lovely spot behind a spirited tempo (if he jumps). He’s quirky but he’s really talented. Still putting it all together. TRIPLE JAY is drawn barrier 14 of 16 and yet still likely goes round on the second line of betting. He’ll need a serious steer but he’s capable of winning better races than a 60+ Graduation. ALOTOFBANTER was double nominated for the Max Simmonds Stakes and this race. No brainer after the barrier draw. DEEP ENVY trialled well for her return.
Numbers: 1 – 2 – 5 – 8
Suggested Bet – RULER ROCKET WIN
RIPCORD returned to racing without a trial and with 59kg when working forward to breeze. He was strong to the line and now second-up, back to Ascot and with a few speedy ones to follow he gets a great chance to remind us of the raw ability which saw him win a Perth Stakes and run third to Super Smink and Live To Tell in a Karrakatta Plate. Eachway price is certainly appealing. OSCAR’S FORTUNE is undefeated at trials and on race day. He’s drawn outside of Krysanova, Red Square and Petula. Interesting to see how much fuel he has to burn to get across. PETULA looks a sharp and professional race filly. ALMIGHTY CLASS again got tongues wagging at trials.
Numbers: 1 – 3 – 11 – 6
Suggested Bet – RIPCORD EACHWAY
Same Race Multi – Ripcord (Top 4) + Petula (Top 4)
The inaugural Max Simmonds Stakes has blistering speed: Krysanova, Red Square, Oscar’s Fortune and so hopefully we can get a bit of value out of the Same Race Multi with Ripcord and Petula to both finish Top 4 at reasonable odds. They’ll both sit just off the hot speed and be making their runs at the tiring leaders late. Exciting start to the 3 year old sprinting series.
THOMAS MAGNUM stepped to 1200m last start and arguably should have beaten Sentimental Hero in a 72+. Now he drops back into a 66+ and likely goes round double the price that he did last start. If you’re ever going to get a swoopers race it’s usually in a big field in the last and he should be joining the three and four deep moving lines from the 600. Worth a throw at the stumps at double figures. CELEBRITY PRINCE has returned in great order and Ike re-applies the blinkers. Versatile horse who is capable from both ends. COLOSSAL and SALOON BAR are both likely to be hard in the market but may both find themselves strung up in a lot of traffic.
Numbers: 7 – 14 – 6 – 8
Suggested Bet – THOMAS MAGNUM EACHWAY
Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)