Last 12 winners;
- 2014 Epingle 6m 54kg
- 2013 Hurdy Gurdy Man 5h 54kg
- 2012 Geegees Blackflash 5g 58.5kg
- 2011 Bid Spotter 5g 54.5kg
- 2010 Growl 7g 55kg
- 2009 Gotta Keep Cool 5g 53.5kg
- 2008 Offenbach 5g 54kg
- 2007 Blutigeroo 5g 57.5kg
- 2006 True Courser 5g 57.5kg
- 2005 Our Dashing Dane 5g 51kg
- 2004 Zacielo 4g 52.5kg
- 2003 Jeune’s Mark 5g 52kg
A. 12/12 won or placed last start
B. 10/12 had their last run interstate (9 in Victoria)
C. 9/12 carried 55kg or less
D. 9/12 dropped in weight (7/12 by only 1kg).
E. 9/12 five years of age and 10/12 five years or younger.
F. 12/12 had their last run at 2000m or more.
G. 12/12 either won or placed interstate, or in a Listed/Group race in Tasmania
Form Summary (main chances with relative historical score from above)
1. Geegees Blackflash 4.5/7- Can never be left out of calculations because he is so genuine, and he is the horse that has carried the biggest weight to win in this race over the past 12 years. He has to basically establish a weight carrying record to win again, especially at 8 years of age, and he meets a couple of horses’ from last start poorly at the weights. Against that he is drawn well and will run the distance right out. Still a leading contender.
2. Pelicano 3.5/7- Doesn’t come up all that well historically but he did finish less than 2L from the winner at Gosford where he apparently didn’t handle the track one iota. Horses have finished further back that he did at their prior start and still won this. And his age of 6 shouldn’t be held against him given he is sparingly raced and recently came back from a year on the sidelines with injury. His Interstate form might just be a level above this lot, and his record on Left handed track reads 9/20 opposed to 1/7 in the other direction (only win on Heavy track). He is clearly the one to beat in my opinion.
3. Banca Mo 3.5/7- Honest galloper with a bit of quality, but he just seems to have been one run behind all preparation. Has to create recent history by winning off a 1600m placing last start and just maybe a wet track would be preferable.
4. Iggimacool 3.5/7- Honest Tassie Mare who blotted her copybook last start stepping way up in distance on a wet track. The surface may have been more to blame than anything because she does seem a better horse on firm going. She has won at 2100m in Launceston but that does seem to be her much favoured circuit. Has the job ahead.
5. Garud 4/7- Enigmatic galloper who ran below par at Flemington last start. Craig Williams rides and he did win this race last year aboard Epingle. About the best I can come up with, because at 7 years of age, he doesn’t have quite enough going for him historically to suggest he can turn things around, and win this. He will have his supporters though and he did run in Victoria last start.
7. Genuine Lad 5.5/7- Looks a very sound chance given he meets GGBF 4kg better for a narrow defeat last start. Can he run 2400m though, against other horses just as well off as he is at the weights? Amazingly last start (career best) was his first in Hobart despite being Tassie trained. Prior to that (at distances over 1400m) he had raced almost exclusively on the Synthetic surface at Devonport. Definite place hope but just not sure he is quite good enough to win.
8. Ollie’s Gold 5/7- Is the interesting runner here. He loses a historical point because he only won a restricted class BM82 race last start. But it was an easy win, and his first at Launceston from 14 starts. He has a far better record here at Hobart 4-4/10.. He beat Player One 4 starts ago conceding it 5kg, and it got within 3.5L of GGBF last start at level weights. That augurs well for this horse, given he gets 5kg weight relief from that horse in this. His 2 runs at 2400m have failed to inspire, but both were on wet tracks which he doesn’t like. He won the Derby here as a 3yo beating Kenjorwood, who has won a BM90 race in Melbourne. I think he is classy enough, and barrier 1 with Victorian Jockey Dean Yendall aboard should give him every chance to run the trip. Way overs at $17
11. Falamonte 4.5/7- Intriguing runner who ran a close fourth at Flemington over this trip last start, albeit in restricted grade. This is her acid test against some very experienced horses, in a class of race she hasn’t contested before. Given that she should be carrying a lot less weight, and no 4yo mare has won in the past 12 years. Definitely not hopeless given the decent historical score she gets, and probably decent overs at $31. Could place without surprising too much.
I’m a little suspicious that the Tasmanian form isn’t too strong this year and my thinking is that;
- Pelicano comes out of a far stronger class race at Gosford last start, not beaten too far. He is a decent class stayer at his best and did run a strong 2nd to subsequent Sydney Cup winner The Offer, conceding it 5.5kg in the Autumn of 2013 (Ballarat Cup). He is going to be suited by going back to a left handed track, and I think his price of $4.60 is fairly generous.
2. Ollie’s Gold appeals to me as the best Tasmanian hope at the weights, and will be very hard to beat if he does run the distance right out. He is in form, loves this track, and a decent surface which he should get.
3. Geegees Blackflash can never be left out of calculations. He has won at this track 13 times, and never been out of a place at this distance (2-5/7). How can you leave him out entirely?
4. Genuine Lad goes in my top 4 because he should beat GGBF with the weight differential from last start. He only has to perform to that standard, and run the trip out to be very competitive here.