It’s not quite Autumn racing yet, but this race might have some bearing on that season of racing, with some quality Group 1 gallopers resuming from a spell. They are taking on a slightly lesser class of horse, some of whom have the advantage of some recent racing. Below are the last 10 winners of this race which hasn’t always been run at Rosehill (see in brackets) during that period. 6 out of 10 gives us some useful data to work with though. Horse age and weight precede where the race was run on this list;
- 2014 Appearance 5m (4) (Randwick)
- 2013 Happy Galaxy 3C (2) (Warwick Farm)
- 2012 Rain Affair 4G (4) (Rosehill)
- 2011 Centennial Park 5G (3) (Rosehill)
- 2010 Rangirangdoo 5G (4) (Rosehill)
- 2009 Burdekin Blues 4G (3) (Rosehill)
- 2008 Paratroopers 5G (5) (Canterbury)
- 2007 Mentality 3G (2)(Rosehill)
- 2006 Court’s In Session 6G (12)(Rosehill)
- 2005 Court’s In Session 5G (1) (Randwick)
Pertinent Statistics;
1. 8/10 were either 1st or 2nd up when winning, and CIS in 2005 was off a 41 day break which is almost first up.
2. 9/10 trained at either Rosehill or Warwick Farm
3. 9/10 drew barrier 5 or better. Only CIS in 2006 was able to overcome a wide barrier and his on pace pattern was probably why.
4. 9/10 aged 5 or younger. Only CIS was older in 2006 and he had won the race in 2005. 5 year olds clearly the most prolific winning 5/10.
5. 8/10 were on pace early (in first 3 placings). Only Centennial Park (5-5-5) was able to come from a midfield position (Rosehill his favourite track), and Appearance managed to come from a rearward position last year but that was at a more roomier Randwick circuit. 5/6 winners at Rosehill have been right on the pace with CP the only exception.
6. 7/10 started at winning odds of $5.00 or less. 2 of those that didn’t were run at Randwick. CP won the only other at Rosehill, his preferred Sydney track. The 3 that didn’t start $5.00 or less, started double figures or better, and all won off a break of 6 weeks or more.
7. 5/10 winners came from the Danehill (sire) Bloodline. Represented here through That’s A Good Idea, Thermal Current, Driefontein & Panzer Division.
8. Only 3 last start winners have won the race, and all had won their prior start in the same preparation. This year we have no horse in that category which might lead us to suspect a first or second up winner again.
On a historical basis we are looking for a horse that is First or Second up in their preparation, Drawn barrier 5 or less, 5 years of age, or younger and with an ability to race near the pace (given this is Rosehill). Well fancied in the market ($5 or less) or first up at $11 or more. Preferably boasting a Danehill Bloodline, and trained out of Rosehill or Warwick Farm (only Burdekin Blues the Queenslander wasn’t)
Summary;
Houston we have a problem! There is no ideal candidate here but;
BOBAN looked super when winning a recent barrier trial and his first up run last preparation (albeit Randwick) was the best of his runs in the Spring. He is Rosehill trained, and his price and age look good on a historical basis. Drawn perfectly, but the problem is he generally gets back in the field which is a big negative in regard to this race, and the on pace nature of this track. Definitely the class horse of the race who is capable of running over the top of these late though, and I have a suspicion that some jar out of the surface might be advantageous. He didn’t get that during the Spring, but he has won on a Dead track 6 times in his career. And his last win was on a Dead 5 track which just might transpire here. I’m pretty sure he doesn’t want it much inferior to that though. If he could actually sit better than midfield early the race is probably his.
The 3yo PANZER DIVISON looks very likely if you can forget the fact he is drawn out in barrier 11 and trained out of Scone. I think he will be in the first 3 or 4 horses early (Blinkers On first time should ensure that), which should negate the barrier, and he has won at Randwick (yet to race at Rosehill), so it’s not as if City class racing is beyond his capabilities. Sired by Redoute’s Choice puts him in the Danehill bloodline category which is also encouraging. As is the fact he has won on wet ground, which looks the likely scenario for this race.
HAWKSPUR could be the knockout horse, if he can keep up early. He is a 5yo that has drawn well, and has he has won 2 races here. His first up run in the Spring was very good when only beaten 2L at Randwick in the Missile Stakes (1.8L astern of Boban) at a huge price. He likes wet tracks too and is at a generous double figure quote.
DRIEFONTEIN is an honest 5yo mare with good fitness levels. She needs the track relatively dry (preferably a Soft 4 or better), but the 1200m distance is a real bonus for her and so is her decent barrier. Beyond 1200m her record only reads 1/13 but at or below that distance she has 7 wins from 20. The last time she came back in distance 200m she won a Group 3 race at Morphettville. She has drawn wide at both her runs back this time in, and that hasn’t allowed her to get as near to the pace as usual. She should be very prominent early in this and her second to Deep Field (conceding him 2kg) at Flemington during the Spring is good enough to make her competitive (at the very least) here. Also handy to realise that it was another Gai Waterhouse mare Sweet Idea that beat a similar field to this in the Missile Stakes last Spring. Ignoring a large chunk of historical data would suggest she might be the one to beat here.
By Brisburgh Phil
