I had to name it Super Sunday because I just can’t find a headline race, on which is a ‘delicious’ card of racing. It really is a credit to the race club to attract this quality of horse to the nations’ capital, in so many interesting races. The National Sprint, Guineas, Black Opal Stakes & Cup look the pick of the crop, but they are ably supported by the Camarena sprint for the speedsters, & two BM65 races that are also very competitive. I’ll start my preview off with a selection in one of those, and hope to show a profit overall despite only a couple of hours of analysis;
R2 #8 TABLETOP looks an Each Way hope here drawn better than all the favoured horses in the market. Her overall form suggests she is good enough, and she might be suited sitting just off a fast speed. She has won first up and goes okay at this track. Concussion Plates go on but she did win first up in November 2013 with that same scenario. At $13 I thought she looked a decent value with Winona Costin aboard.
R3 #8 THE MONSTAR is also good odds and is probably an underrated horse. He has only once missed a place on a provincial track from 9 starts (6 wins) and that was here at 1400m, a distance too far for him. He has also got much better stats on right handed tracks at 5-2/8 opposed to 1-1/7 left handed. Despite that he comes off 3 fairly decent runs on Metro tracks in Victoria and is nice and fresh for this. At $12 he is very nice Each Way value too from a perfect barrier and likely to be suited sitting off a fast speed.
Also have a lot of respect for Rose Of Falvelon at double figure odds. She is a track specialist and flies fresh. She is drawn barrier 1 which could be a huge asset. And she meets The Monstar 2.5kg better for a narrow defeat this time last year.
R4 (National Sprint) #1 MIGHTY LUCKY finds himself in a set weights race, but has been running in higher class races than all of these, and competing well. Only 1.6L off Ball Of Muscle in an open Sprint then fourth to Ninth Legion over 1400m in very fast time. At his latest start he was narrowly beaten by the inform Burbero. On that form he looks the one to beat and has drawn to advantage in a race where he should be conceding weight to every other horse. $3.80 is probably a decent price given that.
Foreign Prince is good odds and a gun 1400m horse. He needs to lead, and if that does transpire he could take a lot of running down. My fear is that Lampedusa and maybe one or 2 others will take him on and that will end his chances. But he might be worth an investment @ $15 given he has the inside barrier and could make maximum use of it. 5 consecutive runs with a female jockey aboard and a male jockey takes over the reins today. Could be primed to run well 3rd up.
R5 (Guineas )#2 MR BOGART comes off a win in a good race at Canterbury recently where he ran good time in comparison to the other BM70 race at the same distance. He finished off hard there and should get a race run to suit today with a high speed possibly negating his wide barrier. $7.50 seems well and truly overs with Hugh Bowman retaining the ride.
Rom Baro the one to beat but his $2.70 price doesn’t appeal to me as he almost certain to be taken on up front by 1 or 2 others. And this is a step up in class at level weights.
R6 (Cup) #5 SIR JOHN HAWKWOOD looks impossible to tip against sitting on the minimum weight in this. He comes off a resounding win in fast time at Flemington over 2000m where a Nose Roll was applied for the first time. He is a former import now in the hands of Peter Moody and these horses can normally be followed with confidence when they have found winning form. The price is rock bottom at $2.50 with the travel and change in race direction, but it’s hard to not lean his way with 54kg and Craig Williams aboard from a good barrier.
R7 (Black Opal) #3 TAKEDOWN ran better time when winning his second start than that of a BM70 winning older horse on the same day. He didn’t win by a lot, but there was a big gap to the 3rd horse, and the runner up hasn’t started since. He is the only 2yo in the race that’s in my Blackbook so I had no hesitation in selecting him at an $11 price. Not a race I have spent any time on, but nothing really stands out on a form basis.
R8 #9 NIGHTS ON FIRE was well supported recently at Wagga first up and looked the winner in the straight before her fitness gave out, and a possible issue with her getting her Tongue over the bit (no Tongue Tie today though?). She was beaten by a decent mare there, and her formlines are very solid, including a win over Ainzali at level weights. She should run the 1400m right out here, and at double figure odds represents nice Each Way value.