This is an awfully tough Wednesday and the list of CT (Comparative Time) horses I have is indicative of that. I’m only going to single out one at a price but it might be worth looking at a few of those around the double figure price mark.
Race 5 at Launceston tomorrow is the Vamos Stakes a Group 3 race for mares. From what I can ascertain there have been only 8 previous editions. This year it looks to be a race in 3 if my history notes are of any value;
A) 8/8 had either won or placed last start. (That eliminates a lot of runners)
B) All winners have come from barriers 3-8.
C) No winner has come from further back than 6th in early stages of race and 5/8 have been in first 3 early.
D) No winner had more than 18 days since its last run
E) All 8 winners raced in Tasmania early in their career
The 3 main contenders appear to be LADY LAKSHMI, GOODFUN GIRL & MISS MIDDLETON. I would certainly go with the latter on her last run, but the wide barrier and apprentice aboard have me a bit too wary. She has won twice at this track though from wide barriers, once at this distance. She has no option but to go back in the race given that is her normal pattern, and that isn’t the right scenario for this race. It seems a bit unlikely they would ride her any other way.
Lady Lakshmi and Goodfun Girl have met twice before and Lady L has defeated her comfortably on both occasions, once in the wet which is preferable for her. Dry conditions should prevail. Lady L has drawn the ideal sort of barrier though whereas G.Girl has drawn barrier 1. Lady L is also Group 3 placed, and that means she is well weighted here at the set weights conditions of the race. She has won third up at 2 of her last 3 preparations and her trainer did state in a recent article that the first up run with a big weight was really only a trial. Her last run was solid without being an eye catcher, but this is her distance, she can race near the pace, and this was always going to be her grand final according to the stable. Although she isn’t a Tasmanian mare (the only historical flaw), at least she has had the run here and that is another reason I favour her over G.Girl. The rest I have to leave out on the grounds of distance and/or class suitability, but having said that this may be the weakest edition of this race for some time so anything could happen.
Sandown R7#15 LADY’S PERSUASION looks nice each way value in this. I was pretty impressed with her first up win and that followed a very unfortunate defeat before a spell when Craig Newitt rode her way too aggressively stepping up from 1100m to 1300m. Prior to that effort she had been 4.5L astern of Sabatini and that is a good formline. That day she got too far back but managed to make up about 3L on that filly and about 5L on the runner up over the last 300m in a pretty impressive performance. She is more than handy, in a top stable and has drawn perfectly tomorrow. at a better than double figure price she looks a very solid chance in a pretty tough race.
The ones highlighted are the only ones that don’t have at least another CT horse in the same race, excepting Lady’s Persuasion (above).
Scouting Around – Launceston R7 No.2 (1200m): CT 3L 2nd GeeGees Brightstar Launceston Mdn 19/07. Still ran faster time than C1 quite comfortably
Absolute Empress – Randwick R4 No.1 (1400m): Beat home CT horse Ends In Tears Gosford 1100m Mdn 16/01. Time 1 second faster than other Mdn but inferior to BM65 albeit superior last 600m.
Pinchme – Randwick R4 No.3 (1400m): 1000m 2yo winner Wyong 1/05 F & M. 1.57 secs faster than C & G division with .89 faster last 600m. Won by 4.8L.
Slots – Randwick R5 No.3 (1100m): Won 1007m Taree Mdn by 4L 22/12. Superior to other Mdn by 0.67 with .64 faster last 600m. Also superior to BM55 in both respects.
Peeping – Randwick R5 No.7 (1100m): 1100m 3yo Fillies Mdn winner 24/09 Hawkesbury. Clearly faster than other Mdn witn 1.22 seconds faster last 600m. Bettered time of the exceptional Alberto Magic BM70 with .63 faster last 600m. Wow!
Ziggy Willie – Randwick R6 No.2 (1600m): 1.3L CT 2nd Caped Crusader Randwick Mdn 4/11. 3.3L to 3rd and Par. Best adjusted time of day.
Luxury – Randwick R6 No.11 (1600m): 1000m Mdn winner Canberra 8/01. Clearly faster than other Mdn & BM55
Lassitude – Randwick R7 No.3 (1400m): 0.2L 2nd 1550m 3yo Mdn 22/10. Faster than BM70 with 1 second faster last 600m.2.3L to 3rd
Dupe ‘em – Randwick R7 No.7 (1400m): 2.6L CT 4th Music Magnate Canterbury 1200m 27/12. 4.5L to 5th and last. Time superior to Canterbury Classic.
Quick Strike – Randwick R7 No.10 (1400m): Won 1550m 3yo Mdn 22/10. Faster than BM70 with 1 second faster last 600m
Kayjay’s Joy – Randwick R7 No.12 (1400m): CT 1100m (C1) winner Gosford 27/12. Won by 3.5L and could have BB’d of debut win when beating subsequent CT winner Slots.
Street Allure – Sandown Lakeside R3 No.2 (1300m): 1100m Mdn winner Bendigo 22/05. Only slightly inferior to 64 class and 1 second faster thn 2yo Mdn. Adjusted time 3rd best of day and not far away from best.
Canyoukeepasecret – Sandown Lakeside R3 No.10 (1300m): 1.3L CT 2nd The Blonde Alibi Hamilton 1200m (58) 1/12. 3L to 3rd.
Coram – Sandown Lakeside R7 No.6 (1200m): 1200m 2yo Mdn winner Geelong Synthetic 18/07. .63 faster than other 2yo Mdn winning by 6L. Best adjusted time of day and Gelded during spell.
Second Base – Sandown Lakeside R7 No.10 (1200m): CT 2nd Parwan Prince Seymour 3yo Mdn 3/08. Still ran faster time than 64 class and 3.5L to 3rd. Winner already in CT BB.
Fantasy Eight – Sandown Lakeside R7 No.12 (1200m): Cranbourne 1000m winner 17/10 by 3.8L Not too far inferior to Kuiama (78).
Iamhere – Sandown Lakeside R7 No.14 (1200m): 1206m Mdn winner Benalla 23/12. Superior to BM70 (Pretty Possum) by .62 second and won by 5.5L.
Lady’s Persuasion – Sandown Lakeside R7 No.15 (1200m): CT 2L 3rd Brouhaha Cranbourne 2yo 16/07. 2.9L to 4th and PAR.
Domesday Warrior – Sandown Lakeside R8 No.2 (1200m): CT win Swan Hill 975m Mdn 28/10.
Joy Flipper – Strathalbyn R8 No.8 (1200m): Won 1200m Strathalbyn Mdn 11/06. .75 superior to RST62 with .36 faster last 600m. 3rd palced horse finished 9.3L behind him.
Passatorio – Sunshine Coast R6 No.2 (1000m): CT 5.1L 3rd Tricky Rocket G/Coast 3yo