Unfortunately unable to find too many I’m keen on at double figure prices today, but I’ve still aimed at selecting horses at $5 or better. The first selection is the ‘skinniest’ at that price (Best Price).
Te Rapa R3#9 IRISH MOON goes up in class off 3 consecutive wins but drops massively in weight. 50% strike rate and 3-2/6 at this track. 5-2/11 at the distance and the last 3 starts have been at this distance. He was originally Blackbooked off a second to Allez Eagle (condeding 1kg to him), and that horse was only 2.5L away in a Group 1 race last week, at a distance probably beyond his best. Drawn a bit wide but he does have early speed so can hopefully negate the barrier.
Te Rapa R7#3 ATACAMA might be having her last career start in this and can’t win on her last run. It does seem though that she has been deliberately set for this and it’s notable that she has less time between starts for this than in recent times. She boasts a win at Flemington over 1800m, but has never really reproduced that. Back to a left handed track for the first time in 4 starts might help and a good barrier should allow her to race closer. Pondarosa Miss the one they all have to beat but a dry track really isn’t in her favour. Shop around for the best price on this mare as she is $4.80 Sportsbet and $7 Tattsbet. I wouldn’t take under the latter. It would be an emotional win because her well known owner passed away last week.
Randwick R5#9 MARWOOD is a Victorian visitor who relishes racing fresh and getting on wet tracks (4-1/5). He looks a great chance in this race with only 52.5kg on a track where weight relief should be very advantageous. He drops 8kg off his last start and he wasn’t beaten far at level weights behind a horse called Late Charge in Victoria on a dry track (not his go). That horse was only 3L away at Group 1 level in the Spring (Toorak Handicap). Super value at $6.50 and just needs a sensible ride from the inside barrier to go close.
Randwick R6#12 CHOICE LARGA is on his absolute last chance here but drops a lot in weight and has a close second here at this distance on a Heavy track. That day he beat Dowdstown Charlie into third conceding it 2.5kg. They meet at level weights here and he is twice the price of that horse. At $21 he is worth an investment I feel carrying a lower weight than he has ever carried on a bog track.
Gold Coast R8#15 LEEBAZ– See race preview here (http://www.theroar.com.au/2015/04/24/ad-hollindale-stakes-2015-historical-preview/) Should be able to lead these today and looks a great historical fit. The only query is whether he can back up off a 7 day break, but the Blinkers going on has me salivating a bit given he is a Zabeel offspring. A Lot of horses come into this off an unideal break so if he can handle the exertions of last week he has that added advantage. He ran a great race last year at his first run here in the WFA Doomben Cup last year so that is also a positive. He should take running down. I think ESCADO is worth at least a speculator on his historical rating. $51 is way, way overs about a horse that has won a Derby in Australia (albeit South Australia),and his from has been very consistent of late, including a less than 2L defeat at Group 1 level. Perfectly drawn ad shock value! Each Way better and you can get $14 a place at least.
Gold Coast R9#8 HUKA EAGLE is a smart New Zealander who has recently been Gelded. He nearly beat the classy Rosehill Guineas winner Volkstok’n’barrell at 1300m over there, and was apparently a bit unlucky not to do so that day. All his other form is good over the ditch and the same trainer brought Sacred Star here last year and bolted in the QTC Cup. That horse had been gelded just prior too. This is a hard race but jockey Leith Innes gave up some good rides in New Zealand to partner him. I took $7.50 last night and wouldn’t be keen to take less than $6.50. This is a very hot field but his form is definitely good enough to win this.
Best of CT horses at value prices (necessary on a Saturday);
Brewery – Gold Coast R1 No.8 (1800m): 1300m C & G Mdn winner Hawkesbury 12/02. .47 faster than F & M Division but last 600m 1.60 seconds faster. Blinkers first time and Gelded druing spell.
The Wildman – Gold Coast R6 No.4 (1200m): 3.5L 2yo Mdn winner Sunshine Coast 16/04. Best adjusted time of day and faster than older Mdn winner by .43 second.
Beau Jet – Gold Coast R9 No.5 (1200m): 1000m 3yo Opn S/Coast 17/10. 56.68 very fast for 1000m this track. Half to Linton.
Baligari – Morphettville Parks R5 No.10 (1400m): CT 0.3L 3rd Eclair Big Big Morphetville BM72 24/08.
Mighty Maverick – Te Rapa R5 No.3 (1200m): 4L winner Matamata 1200m Mdn 17/12. Nearly 1 second quicker than other Mdn and 2nd best adjusted time of day.
Party Crasher – Te Rapa R8 No.9 (1200m): 1100m Mdn winner Avondale 3/12. Best adjusted time of day and time way superior to 2yo event.
