Trentham (NZ) R9#9 SOUBRETTES is an up and coming mare by Champion sire High Chaparral who has this race at her mercy if she can run up to her best. She thrashed a decent field last start at Riccarton after sitting wide the whole race and is unbeaten 4/4 at this distance. She is also 4/4 with more than 21 days between runs and 4/5 overall in her career. My only real concern is the inside barrier which could present a problem is she gets no galloping room. If she does, though her blistering acceleration should account for these. $4.60 is probably a touch of value given anything over $4 is acceptable to me.
Sunshine Coast R5#4 NICKY NOCKY confounded my beliefs last start winning at 1400m, on a wet track, from off the pace. I would have thought all 3 factors were beyond her and they were largely the reason I dropped her from the Blackbook. She was totally dominant though and it’s hard to see her going backwards today with the same very capable apprentice aboard (Luke Dittman), with a 3kg claim. That brings her in with only 51.5kg and she is nicely drawn to make a big impact again. $4.60+ seems good value to me and although the track is a lot drier than last time her stats on firmer surfaces are nearly as good.
Randwick R5#5 BLACK JAG is certainly no champion but he has found a new lease of life in recent times and I’m giving him the edge over the 2 favourites in this given his form at the mile. Both Burbero & You’ll Never look a little suspect at this distance at the testing Randwick mile whilst this horse won his last start at this track and distance by 6L. He should be ahead of both those horses in the run and might be hard to run down. He seems to be the value runner in the race.
Flemington R6#14 SIMPLY YOU has to be given a mention here merely because she was unlucky last start behind Wild Rain and meets that filly 5kg better (after the claim) for a 2.4L defeat. She should have finished closer in that race at M/Valley and is trained at this track by Danny O’Brien so the straight track shouldn’t pose a problem to her. She is beautifully bred out of G1 winning mare Glamour Puss (also formerly trained by O’Brien), and has seemingly inherited a good deal of ability from her. On debut she easily accounted for Tee ‘N’ Tee and that filly has since won 2 races, one of them at Moonee Valley. She looks the weighted horse of the day but I wish she had drawn out a bit instead of the inside barrier down the straight here. Nevertheless given ordinary luck she looks the one to beat.