Below are the last 10 winners of this Set weights and penalties Group 2 mares race which has been run at a few different tracks in that period (in brackets). I think the fact it is now run at Rosehill is going to favour the on pacers more, given it is a tighter and more leader biased circuit. The last 3 winners (one on an even smaller W/Farm track) have come from right on the pace.
Weight carried, Age, Barrier, stage of preparation, and winning odds round out the statistical data.
More often than not a top class mare has won this race which isn’t surprising given the weight scale. Generally in handicap races we are looking at a $10 average winning price (or more), but this one comes in at $5.20. Thus Punters tend to get it right most of the time. 4 of the last 6 have won at $4 or under, and 2 of those were odds on shots (More Joyous, Hot Danish). We may well be looking at another this year!
2014(Rosehill) Catkins 55.5kg 4M (1) First up $4
2013 (Rosehill) Steps In Time 57kg 5m (5) First up. $2.80
2012 (W/Farm) Steps In Time 56kg 4m (4) Second up
2011 (Rand) More Joyous 57.5kg 4m (1) First up $1.40
2010 (Rand) Alverta 55.5kg 6m (9) 21 days $7
2009 (Rand) Hot Danish 56.5kg 5m (7) First up $1.90
2008 (Rand) Gallant Tess 56kg 4m (1) First up $5
2007 (Rand) Pasikatera 56.5kg 4m (7) 49 days $10
2006 (Rand) Steflara 54kg 5m (7) 5m First Up $10
2005 (Rand) Winning Belle 58.5kg (11) 4m First up $6
Pertinent statistics. A. 7/10 first up, and 8/10 had 49 days or more between runs B. 0/10 over $10, 5/10 $5 or less C. 9/10 aged 4 or 5 D. 9/10 carried 55.5kg or more E. 4/10 first up off a Flemington run prior. 6/10 had last run interstate.
F. Last 3 winners Rosehill (2), W/Farm (1) have raced right on pace throughout (1st or 2nd in run)
Notable that no horse in the last 10 years has won carrying above the minimum weight. That is further evidence that the well performed mares have an advantage in this race. I’m not putting too much emphasis on the age factor as the vast majority of mares that have contested this race have probably been 4 or 5 years of age, hence the tremendous strike rate.
This seems to be largely devoid of speed with ROLE MODEL likely to go forward and CATKINS will sit just off her. PLUCKY BELLE has drawn the inside and won a barrier trial by 10L leading recently. But that isn’t her normal pattern so I’d expect her to drift back to midfield or worse. MARIANNE & MIHIRI should be prominent early and perhaps LILLIBURLERO will be too from her wide barrier, with HERA possibly settling forward of midfield early. On balance you would have to say this could be very much an on pace bias race, but a few jockeys might be aware of that and make a liar out of me!
CATKINS– Has every possible thing going for her historically and should get a race run to suit. She is massively advantaged under this weight scale and only has to overcome a wide barrier to be the one to beat. There is one possible ‘chink in her armour though and that is a dry surface. Her form really tapered off last preparation where she failed to win at her last 3 starts on good tracks and she has only won one of her last 10 on dry tracks. That is a damning statistic and it has to be weighed up against her short price. Being fresh might help in that regard and she does race well that way generally.
2. ARINOSA– She is a stablemate of the favourite but hasn’t won since October 2013. She has had 2 only average trials in preparation for this, and her first up form is only fair overall. You can never leave out a Chris Waller trained runner completely but she will most likely need a fast pace up front to figure in the finish. She does have a good record here (2-1/4) but needs to creates some recent history of her own to win at 7 years of age.
3. HERA – Is a former NZ mare who has a touch of class at her best. That wasn’t in evidence at her first 4 runs in Australia for Newcastle trainer Kris Lees, but she did win at her fifth attempt when ridden closer to the lead. She has beaten home Rising Romance (ran 2nd in Caulfield Cup last Spring) in New Zealand albeit at 1600m, and it does appear her best distance might be 1400-1600m. Her first up form is ordinary and she probably requires some give in the ground which looks a little unlikely. She probably doesn’t have quite enough going for her to suggest a win in this but gee I do think her $41 price is overs.
4. NEENA ROCK– Another former NZ mare who really found her best form here last preparation for new trainer John Sargent after the application of a Tongue Tie. She ran well against Catkins twice in that campaign and both times had wide barriers which didn’t help her cause at all, conceding too much of a start to that mare because of that. She meets her under similar weight terms in this but has drawn inside of her this time. This mare flies fresh as evidenced by her debut win by 7L, and a super 3rd to Catkins last preparation when she came from 15th on the turn. She is a 6yo mare now (not so good historically), but only started racing in December 2012, and her trainer is adamant this preparation should be her best. Her form in the Sydney direction had been very poor until recently, but she overcame that obstacle by placing twice at Rosehill and winning at Randwick. She had be a bit tardy from the barrier but also seems to have overcome that. And the plan is to keep Catkins in reach during the run. She is a big hope at a nice price.
5. LILLIBURLERO– Goes okay fresh with her only below par first up effort being her last one down the straight at Flemington. She went okay in a recent trial in preparation for this race, but interesting to note that all her wins have been from barriers 1-6. She has drawn out in barrier 10 here. The class of this race is a query and she might be at her absolute best at 1400m.
6. PLUCKY BELLE– Is a mare I’ve always had a bit of time, for but have failed to catch. She goes well fresh and went very close to winning first up last preparation in a Group 3 race at this track and distance. That was on a Heavy surface though, and although she has won on a dry track her wet statistics read far better at 2-1/3, opposed to 2-6/19 on better ground (Dead to Good). She won a barrier trial by 10L recently in moderate time when beating Neena Rock leading all the way, but generally gets back in her races. She may need the pace on up front, and for her jockey to retain the inside running (from Barrier 1), and go for a rails run in the straight. Certainly not hopeless but needs to do everything right to win.
7. MARIANNE– Is a very honest mare who drops in weight off a decent first up performance against all comers recently at Randwick. She isn’t a big horse and it was fairly evident that day that she was anchored by the weight of 58kg, and possibly a lack of fitness. She has three Group 2 placing’s to her credit in 3yo Fillies grade, and was competitive more often than not with the best of her age in Melbourne. That form lines up quite well for this, and she can race close enough to the pace here to give herself a winning chance. The minimum weight of 54kg is definitely in her favour because of her size. Whether she is quite good enough is the question given she does have more placing’s than wins on her resume. Definitely has claims to run in a first 4 placing without doubt.
8. ROLE MODEL should give a good account of herself here with a run under her belt and ability to race right on the pace. She meets Mahiri 3kg better for a 1.8L defeat at the last run, but her second up form doesn’t really rate in comparison to her first up efforts. Only her second preparation for Gai Waterhouse though and she does drop 5.5kg in weight for this. The class of this race is a query on what we know, but if Catkins doesn’t let down’ on the dry surface then she could pinch a winning break in the straight off a moderate pace. Certainly goes in the mix!
9. MIHIRI– is the fit in form mare of the race, from an in form stable. That gives her some hope here. The class of the event is a big question mark for me though and interesting that all her wins have been off a 21 day break or more. This represents a 14 day break for her which might not be ideal, and ironically an inside barrier might not be either, given her best runs have been from wider draws. Certainly adds interest but Role Model might have her measure anyway with a 3kg weight pull.
10. JUST A BLUR– really does have the job ahead here being eligible for BM72 restricted grade races and having to take on G1 class mares. Nothing statistically stands out to say she can be competitive here so appears safe to ignore.
Historically you have to be ‘all over’ Catkins here and she should get a race run to suit. If there is any rain around she looks the winner. If the track is dry though and in the interests of value I’m going to tip that NEENA ROCK can upset the applecart. Role Model can run a sneaky race if she leads as expected, and Marianne is suited carrying a light weight and should run her usual honest race.
1. NEENA ROCK
3. ROLE MODEL